UK on-trade value expected to grow

“Whilst operational excellence is apparent the length and breadth of Britain, so too is its polar opposite” notes the report.

Despite on-trade volumes declining more quickly than off-trade volumes, the UK on-trade’s 125,000 outlets are responsible for 61% of alcohol sales by value and this share is forecast to grow according to a new report from on-trade consultants CGA Strategy there.

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Off-trade

Last year the GB on-trade was worth a combined £39 billion in food & drink sales of which wet sales accounted for £24 billion.
Drawing on the latest economic and market data CGA Strategy’s new report has forecast projected market size and sector volume & trends to 2018.

Café-Wine Bars, Premium Spirits and Cask Ales are predicted to be tomorrow’s winners, according to the report.

“Whilst operational excellence is apparent the length and breadth of Britain, so too is its polar opposite” notes the report, “and in the context of declining consumer engagement it’s these less evolved venues that are informing the market and drinks sector performance trends of overall decline.”

It adds, “Challenging trading over the next two years will disproportionately affect those outlets which have not adapted to capitalise on emergent consumer trends and consequently find themselves at a competitive disadvantage”.

As a result, the number of on-trade outlets will decline by a further 7,704 outlets over the next five years with the majority of the closures coming about in the next two years, states CGA Strategy.

The report’s author Alex Eyre commented, "Our latest future forecasting report gets to the heart of the issues characterising the licensed trade in 2013. On the retail side we’re seeing a multiplicity of successful retail models, from the slick operational excellence of the major national chains to entrepreneurial and creative dynamism of emerging local talent both continuing to drive onward growth.

“On the supply side, a proliferation of new premium brands and products feed and cultivate demand from consumers. It’s the consumer’s thirst for discovery and experience that will drive the on trade forward sustainably.”

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