Global trends from Planet Retail tell a lot

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Grocery spend will be more "resilient/insulated" in 2009 and discounters will continue to be the biggest winners



8 March 2009

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Retail market expert, Planet Retail, has released its global report detailing trends and forecasts for 2009. Globally the market will see negative nominal growth, as most industrialised nations fall into recession, although the report does predict recovery to begin in the second half of 2009 or early 2010.

Planet Retail analyst Bob Gregory told ShelfLife: “All of the leading grocery retailers can expect to see positive growth in 2009. The downturn in consumer spending is likely to hit retail sales in general, although grocery spend is likely to be more resilient/insulated than for non-food retailers.”

Gregory also said that discounters will be the biggest winners, attaining the fastest growth as a format, although their challenge will be to retain customers once the recovery begins.

In terms of which retailers are best-placed to grow this year, Gregory said: “A sizeable global supply chain is a significant benefit in terms of a retailer’s ability to source and offer low-priced goods…

"However, this should not be overestimated; some of the UK’s fastest-growing grocers at present are a fraction of the size of Tesco and Wal-Mart. Global sourcing is especially important in terms of non-food, but not so much for food items, much of which is still sourced locally or regionally.” Gregory pointed to that fact that most supplier deals are done on a “country basis”.

In general, there will be an opportunity this year to exploit the frozen food and value segments, as there has been a marked shift towards these categories. However, Gregory says “indications are that consumers will still be willing to pay a small premium” for ethical products, such as Fairtrade, and that their inclusion in retailers’ private label ranges will encourage even further growth.



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